Congress comes back to Washington today after its month-long recess. That's bad news for investors, because as Mark Twain once quipped: "No man's life, liberty, or property are safe while the legislature is in session."
With Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, nor is any voter's 401k plan. Dan Clifton, an expert with the investment advisory firm Strategas, says that "almost the entire congressional agenda right now is bearish." He points to health care, cap-and-trade, deficits, coming tax hikes and the huge appropriations increases slated for federal agencies next year. "One bill that not many people are paying attention to," Mr. Clifton warns, "is the financial consumer protection act, which will be a regulatory nightmare for financial firms and credit card companies." The word on Capitol Hill is that the White House wants to fast-forward this legislation for 2009 rather than 2010, because health care and cap-and-trade are stalled.
Eric Singer, who runs the Congressional Effect Fund, a mutual fund that allows investors to hedge their portfolios against congressional actions, has examined historical stock market returns depending on whether Congress is in session or not. Over the past 44 years, stock market returns have been more than twice as high during periods when Congress is shut down. That's true even during the recent subprime crisis. Since May of 2008, stocks fell 3.5% during periods when Congress was adjourned versus a fall of 24.3% when Congress was in session.
Mr. Clifton agrees with high-profile bulls like CNBC's Larry Kudlow that the market's recent rally is due to investor perceptions that President Obama's agenda is cratering. Right now, Mr. Clifton counts ten Senate Democrats as likely votes against the Obama health care bill. The outlook could quickly become more bearish, however, if the administration succeeds in striking a deal with GOP Senators Chuck Grassley of Iowa or Olympia Snowe of Maine, which might bring just enough votes around to let the White House ram its plan through the Senate.
"Left to its own devices, the economy has shown some signs of healing," warns Mr. Singer. "But the phrase 'leave well enough alone' is not the mantra of this Congressional leadership."
-- Stephen Moore
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