Probably none of you remember former Senator James Buckley from New York, a member of the conservative party who won a senate seat in 1970. That particular election, because of its rarity, has become something of a rare specimen for political science nerds to put on their white lab coats and dissect. Because of the distinct advantages the two major political parties have in organization and resources, it is quite rare for third party candidates to win a state wide election--although Jesse Ventura of Minnesota, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut have all done it in recent memory. What is particularly interesting about Mr. Buckley victory is that:
- He won in 1970, 6 years after the Goldwater candidacy but well before the conservative was defined, let alone on the ascent.
- He won during a year (first midterm after presidential year) that was difficult for Republicans and those on the political right-wing of the spectrum.
30 years later, something very interesting is happening in upstate New York. All of this began last fall with the election of President Obama. A post of Brendan Miniter below:
When President Obama named GOP Rep. John. McHugh to be secretary of the army, political cynics suspected a White House plot to capture one of last GOP-held seats in New York State. But local GOP leaders had an answer: Assemblywoman Dierdre "Dede" Scozzafava.
Ms. Scozzafava may be the most liberal Republican in the state legislature, but national GOPers rallied to her as the best shot to hold the McHugh seat. Former Rep. Tom Davis, instrumental in organizing past GOP House victories, became a key supporter. House Republicans Rep. Charlie Dent and Rep. Pete Sessions took the lead in raising money for her. Backers said that even if Ms. Scozzafava diverges on some important issues, she would be a reliable vote for Republican leader John Boehner to become Speaker if Republicans manage to retake the House next year.
So why are so many Republicans less than enthused? At a closed-door meeting in Washington recently, Mr. Sessions reportedly came in for a drubbing by conservative members worried that Ms. Scozzafava will go wobbly on, say, opposing Big Labor's card check campaign. The Club for Growth, which recently endorsed her Conservative Party opponent Doug Hoffman, is planning on spending about $250,000 on ads in the district pounding her on the issues. Former senator and presidential candidate Fred Thompson has also endorsed Mr. Hoffman. If that weren't enough, Ms. Scozzafava, who represents a good chunk of the district in the state legislature and was supposed to cruise to victory on name-recognition, is suddenly trailing little-known Democratic first-timer Bill Owens in a new Siena College poll by 33% to 29%. (Mr. Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, is also coming on strong, now at 23%, up seven points in two weeks).
Her GOP critics have another reason to worry. Even if Ms. Scozzafava were somehow to eke out a win next month as a Republican, at the first sign of a conservative challenge, she might switch to the Democrats (who've already courted her). But at least one group feels vindicated -- the cynics who questioned Mr. Obama's motives in naming Mr. McHugh to the Pentagon post in the first place. The White House subsequently planted itself squarely in the battle to capture his seat. Joe Biden has already raised money for Mr. Owens, an air force veteran who runs a local law firm. Mr. Obama plans to headline an Owens fundraiser in New York City today. Also shaking the money tree is Bill Clinton, telling supporters the race is an important referendum on the Obama agenda in Washington. Democrats are going all-out to win the seat, and Republicans, outsmarting themselves, appear to have played right into the White House's hands.
The Weekly Standard has more here.
Upstate GOP bosses (county chairmen) met behind closed doors to nominate veteran assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava of Watertown, whose record qualifies her as the most liberal Republican congressional candidate in memory. She is pro-card check, pro-abortion, and twice voted in the assembly to legalize gay marriage. She repeatedly has won the endorsement of the ACORN-backed Working Families party, sharing that party's ballot with John Kerry in 2004 and Obama last year.
In her official assembly biography, she lists herself as chief operating officer of her family-owned corporation. But now that the firm is in trouble, facing state and federal tax liens, the local press reports she says "she has nothing to do" with the company. Meanwhile, her husband is the regional president of the AFL-CIO.
National Republican leaders have been bombarded by conservative activists to force the pull back of Scozzafava's nomination. To date the National Republican Campaign Committee is stubbornly sticking with her.
But there are developments in the 23rd that may make both political party machines irrelevant.
Doug Hoffman, a native of Saranac Lake, is a self-made successful businessman and accountant with offices throughout the district. A lifelong Republican, he had never thought of becoming a political candidate. The closest he had ever been to political power was shaking hands last year with New York governor David Paterson, who was awarding a medal of heroism to Hoffman's state trooper son, shot while successfully capturing a wanted criminal.
But something happened to Hoffman as he watched the special election in the neighboring 20th District. To Hoffman, the performance of the candidates perfectly exemplified the failure of national business and political leadership in America.
So when Republican chairmen announced they would select someone to run for the McHugh seat, Hoffman declared his candidacy. "If ever there was a time when we need people in Congress who can read a balance sheet, it is now," says Hoffman.
Like nine other candidates, he met with the party bosses behind closed doors to make the case for his candidacy. He learned of the Scozzafava nomination through a party press release.
In the days that followed, Hoffman was shocked to learn of Scozzafava's positions in press reports about the coming race. He called friends who put him in touch with conservative leaders, and a meeting was arranged with New York Conservative party chairman Mike Long who was in Lake Placid to watch his own son, a New York City fireman, run in the Iron Man Triathlon.
"I met [Hoffman] early in the morning," Long recalls. "I was struck by his honesty and his refreshing grasp of the issues. I didn't know they made people like this any more. I didn't try to talk him into running, but I sure didn't try to talk him out of it."
Driving back to his hotel after the meeting, Long thought to himself, "That man has a shot at being another Jim Buckley." In 1970 Buckley was elected to the U.S. Senate on the Conservative party line against two liberals, a Republican and a Democrat.
Update: John Fund writes more here. 
Sarah Palin's decision to endorse the Conservative Party candidate in an upstate New York special election for Congress has dramatically raised the stakes in the race.
Establishment Republicans have largely lined up behind Republican Dede Scozzafava, despite a voting record in the state legislature that puts her to the left of half of the Democrats in that body. Ms. Palin, former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, former presidential candidate Fred Thompson, and Rep. Michelle Bachman of Minnesota are all backing Conservative Doug Hoffman, who narrowly failed to beat Ms. Scozzafava for the support of the ten GOP county chairmen who selected the Republican nominee.
Ms. Palin alluded to the fact that Ms. Scozzafava was picked by party bosses and not by a primary electorate. "Best of all, Doug Hoffman has not been anointed by any political machine," she wrote her supporters. "Unfortunately, the Republican Party today has decided to choose a candidate that more than blurs the lines, and there is no real difference between the Democrat and the Republican in this race. This is why Doug Hoffman is running on the Conservative Party's ticket."
Mr. Hoffman seems to have benefited from a surge of financial support in recent days, following an endorsement by the Club for Growth. His campaign reports that he has raised $210,000 in on-line contributions just since October 15.
The Hoffman campaign has used some of the cash to launch a radio ad lampooning an incident that befell the Scozzafava campaign earlier this week. Weekly Standard magazine reporter John McCormack went to a Scozzafava appearance to ask about her stances on union card-check legislation and other issues. Despite his persistent questioning, she refused to respond. After the meeting, Ms. Scozzafava's husband, a union organizer, insisted the police investigate the incident. Mr. McCormack was questioned and let go, even as the Scozzafava campaign accused him of "screaming" questions at their candidate.
Mr. McCormack promptly produced his tape of the meeting, which showed he never raised his voice. The Scozzafava campaign was forced to retract its accusation.
Mr. Hoffman has created a radio ad that simulates a "911" call to the police from a Scozzafava campaign worker apparently distressed at being asked questions. The make-believe aide says about Ms. Scozzafava: "She's a professional politician. Who has the right to ask her questions? Her campaign's going to get killed if taxpayers find out how liberal Scozzafava is."
This race will have many twists and turns before the November 3 election. President Obama has just emailed supporters an endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens, who narrowly leads both Ms. Scozzafava and Mr. Hoffman in the latest polls. Anything can happen in this race, but it looks increasingly like the Republican candidate may be slipping into third place. A poll last week showed Mr. Hoffman at 23%, only six points behind Ms. Scozzafava.
-- John Fund
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