Thursday, April 30, 2009

President Obama's First 100 Days

I couldn't have said it better than Reason Magazine

Obama's Vision Deficit

After 100 days, the new president has revealed himself as an effective salesman of exhausted ideas.

So here we are, 100 days into the great eight-year triumph of Hope over Change, a new Era of Really Good Feelings in which only one thing has become increasingly, even irrefutably, clear: President Barack Obama is about as visionary as the guy who invented Dippin' Dots, Ice Cream of the Future. Far from sketching out a truly forward-looking set of policies for the 21st century, as his supporters had hoped, Obama is instead serving up cryogenically tasteless and headache-inducing morsels from years gone by.

On issue after issue, Obama has made it clear that instead of blasting past "the stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long," (as he promised in his inaugural address), he's moving full speed ahead toward policy prescriptions that already had less fizz than a case of Billy Beer back when Jimmy Carter was urging us all to wear sweaters and turn down our thermostats. Instead of thinking outside the box, Obama is nailing it shut from the inside.

Consider the president's recent "major" speech about transportation, yet another Castro-like exhortation in which Obama boldly rejected the failed policies of the past in favor of the failed policies of the future.

"Our highways are clogged with traffic," he noted, before unveiling his big fix: Shiny new trains that go almost twice as fast as cars. Forget that, as urban historian Joel Garreau has long documented, our country has been decentralizing its living and working patterns for decades now, migrating from virtually all urban centers (except maybe for booming Washington, D.C.) to relatively low-density suburbs. In a big, spread-out country where individualized service at the coffee stand, on cable TV, and in your computer is the new normal, our chief visionary officer is talking about a one-size-fits-all solution that will surely bomb even bigger than NBC's Supertrain.

"Imagine whisking through towns at speeds over 100 miles an hour, walking only a few steps to public transportation, and ending up just blocks from your destination. Imagine what a great project that would be to rebuild America," said the president, while ignoring more obvious and forward-looking fixes such as modernizing air traffic control systems, deregulating airports, and unleashing private capital to build and improve roads. Instead of any genuinely interesting or remotely promising initiative, Obama offered a measly $13 billion in funds, to be directed by Vice President Joe Biden—another visitor from the future who prefers the oh-so-modern conveyance of Amtrak to the unreliable horseless carriage.

In nearly every key area of policy concern, from industrial bailouts to massive deficits, from Afghanistan to the Middle East, from education to energy, the president's standard operating or reach back into the Carter playbook for ideas that didn't work back then, either. All while rhetorically valuing "good ideas ahead of old ideological battles."

On the economy, and specifically on the economic crisis, Obama came to office promising a sharp break from the past. Instead, he has added so much fuel to the fires that George W. Bush ignited—exploding already swollen deficits, using TARP monies (which were statutorily provided for banks) not just for auto companies but minor auto parts manufacturers, and giving the federal government more power to seize private companies than even Henry Paulson dreamed of wielding. Such has been the extent of Obama's me-tooism that he's taken to defending his record by pointing out that, hey, Bush started it!

The latter was actually a rare moment of transparency; Obama's typical M.O. is to proclaim a new era of responsibility while ushering in a new era of irresponsible debt, promise to close the revolving door of lobbyists and government while keeping it open, and vow to post all bills online for five days without doing anything of the sort. He says the bailout is "not about helping banks—it's about helping people," then gives more of the people's money to banks. He says he doesn't want to run General Motors, then fires its CEO, guarantees its warranties, and wags his finger about the company's surplus of brands. He says he's taking a battle-axe to the budget, then offers to shave $100 million off a $3.4 trillion tab. At his gee-whiz, interactive, online town hall meeting, he laughed off the most popular question asked by web viewers—should marijuana be legalized—with a lame joke before embracing the status quo like Jimmy Carter hugging a Third World dictator.

On traditional domestic programs, too, Obama came to office with vague yet high-minded promises to rise above, for example, "the same tired debates over education that have crippled our progress and left schools and parents to fend for themselves." When it came to improving rotten schools, Candidate Obama vowed we would no longer be paralyzed by "Democrat versus Republican; vouchers versus the status quo; more money versus more reform."

Since then, Democrats (versus Republicans) have killed Washington, D.C.'s proven-effective voucher program (versus the status quo), and showered more federal money on schools and teachers (versus more reform). All while having the gall to maintain, as Education Secretary Arne Duncan recently wrote in the Wall Street Journal, that they aim to "close the achievement gap by pursuing what works best for kids, regardless of ideology."

For those Americans who voted for Obama, a question: Is this the change you had in mind?

If surveys are to believed, it is. So far, Obama has positively Reaganesque approval ratings and most polls show increases in the percentage of Americans who believe the country is headed in the right direction, even if no one is certain of the economy.

Obama has had the great good fortune to follow one of the least popular and least effective presidents in U.S. history. However, in the next 100 days, Obama will be trying to ram through the biggest alternative energy central planning scheme since Jimmy Carter unleashed the then-ballyhooed, since-forgotten boondoggle of "synfuels" onto the body politic. He will be hauling out a centralized health care scheme the likes of which haven't been discussed since the disastrous early days of Bill Clinton's presidency. He will be plumping for (Ted) Kennedyesque national service and Dubyaesque education spending.

In each of these, he will not much resemble that bold campaign visionary supposeldy with two feet firmly in the future. Rather, he will reveal himself to be that least inspiring of all political characters: a leader beholden first and foremost to special interests and ultra-conventional voting blocs. This at a time when the electorate is becoming increasingly unaffiliated with either the Democrats or Republicans, conservatives or liberals.

According to the Harris Poll, which has been tracking party affiliation and political philosophy of adult Americans for 40 years, between 2007 and 2008, the most recent year for which there is data, independents were the only bloc of voters to expand—from 23 percent to 31 percent. Similarly, political moderates outnumber both liberals and conservatives. All of which suggests that Obama's honeymoon, like all vacations from reality, will soon come to an end.

Matt Welch is the editor in chief of Reason magazine and Nick Gillespie is the editor in chief of Reason.tv and Reason.com.

Currently Reading....

I have a ton of back issues of The New Yorker, The Economist, and The Weekly Standard to catch up on. That should take me a few weeks. When I am finished, I'll leave them out on the counter.

I will soon start The Freedom of Choice by Saradha Narayanan, who happens to be my aunt. My aunt Saradha is a cardiologist by trade, but has dabbled in poetry and fiction throughout the years. This book is available by Amazon.Co.Uk only.

I'll review it when I'm done.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Costs Versus Benefits of Coffee Breaks


And the verdict is in!!!!! Coffee breaks are a net benefit! No, the Passing Scene Cafe is not propagandizing to drum up more business.

Coffee Break – The Science And History Of Coffee Break

"The next time that your boss complains about the obligatory coffee break, point him in the direction of MIT. Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology recently made a discovery that strongly suggests that coffee breaks – or at least, breaks from activity – are a necessary part of the learning process.

Of course, we didn’t really need MIT to tell us that the coffee break, that time revered workplace tradition, is good for business. Good employers have always known that a break from work increases productivity."

I thought about this issue as I was scouring a popular economics blog---I'd plug it here if I could remember which one it was---and a blog "commenter" referred to coffee breaks as "thefts of employer time"---econ-speak for time at work for which you are being paid and doing very little work, if any.

That can't be right. My income does not depend on time spent at my desk per se, although it behooves me to be present at my desk during market hours. But is the occasional walk to the break room..or even down the block to the coffee shop... to get your caffeine fix sapping your employer of productivity?

Most of us who sit at desks all day know otherwise. My eyes scan over financial headlines and stock/option data for six and half hours. Many of us read briefs, memos, articles, papers, and emails all day...and our retinas fry like eggs on a griddle. Without the occasional coffee break, most of us would go insane!

So grab that extra cup! Til next time!!!

The Price of Songs on Itunes

Found this on MarginalRevolution.com while doing a little research. This blog post is a few years old, but still quite relevant. Thanks Professor Cowen!

Why are all songs the same price on iTunes?

99 cents, but the deals expire in two months. Apple insists on keeping a single price across the board. Why might this be? Why might the retailer care more about price predictability than the wholesalers?

1. The confusion and resentment costs of different prices might be blamed on Apple. But surely we see different prices in many other retail arenas.

2. Perhaps Apple is solving a status game problem. If everyone else is selling for 99 cents and your song sells for $1.20, yours looks special. Music companies might set prices too high, not taking into account the lower demand for iTunes, and music, more generally.

3. Could Apple be enforcing music company price collusion, while receiving implicit kickbacks in the rights agreements? This would require the complainers to be in the minority.

4. Apple makes much of its money on hardware, especially iPods. Low song prices cross-subsidize the hardware, to some extent at the expense of music companies. That said, some music companies wish to charge lower not higher prices.

5. Hit songs are kept at artifically low prices to discourage people from moving into the world of illegal downloads.

6. Price is a signal of quality and Apple doesn't want to admit it carries "lemon" songs. But won't demand for the hits go up?

7. Uniform pricing is a precommitment strategy for a durable goods monopoly game.

We must distinguish two aspects of the problem. First, Apple wishes to control retail prices. Second, Apple wishes to make all retail prices the same. Which of these features is more important for understanding the problem?

Here is a proposal for determining prices by auction; no way will we see it. Here are rumors that the uniform pricing will end. Note that the Japanese store already has two tiers of prices. How about keeping the price the same, but bundling hot songs with less desirable ones? Way back when, we used to call these "record albums"...

Creative Destruction and Economic Revival in Detroit

Hat Tip to the boys at Cafe Hayek.

Creative destruction, a term popularized by economist Joseph Schumpeter, refers to the radical changes in direction economies can make due to failing businesses and subsequent innovation. This article from NPR describes how many biotech, defense, and consulting firms are finding pools of very hard-working and highly knowledgeable laborers among the rubble of the auto manufacturers. Let's hope these small businesses can hire them as fast as the Big 3 can lay them off.

Venture Capitalists, Entrepreneurs Bet On Detroit


"As Detroit's "Big Three" keep getting smaller, the challenge is to somehow create jobs as fast as the auto industry loses them. To do that, Michigan is making a series of bets on smaller companies like defense contractors and biotech firms."

and....

So why isn't his whole work force in India?

"The majority of our workforce is in the U.S.," Dubey says. "When I go to financial investors, they ask, this makes no sense, what is wrong with you? And the answer there is the Michigan workforce, which has significant experience in automotive and manufacturing industry, understands how things work."

Former auto employees know the American industries that Dubey wants to serve.

That same auto-industry DNA attracted venture capital to Detroit. Investors were drawn to minority-owned firms, knowing that the Big Three had given many minorities in the area business experience.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Jonathan Chait Skewers Senator Specter

It seems Senator Arlen Specter cares mostly about his political survival than the issues.

Unprincipled Hack (D-PA)

When a politician switches parties, it’s customary for the party he’s abandoned to denounce him as an unprincipled hack, and the party he’s joined to praise him as a brave convert who’s genuinely seen the light. But I think it’s pretty clear that Specter is an unprincipled hack. If his best odds of keeping his Senate seat lay in joining the Communist party, he’d probably do that.

To be sure, Specter is a real moderate on some issues, but his contortions are so comical that no principled read on his actions is very plausible. Specter favored the Employee Free Choice Act favored by labor, turned against it when he faced a primary challenge, and then abandoned his party altogether when it became clear he couldn’t win his primary. In the meantime, he came out in favor of a Hooverite spending freeze after backing the stimulus bill.

A couple quick thoughts on what this means for the parties. Obviously, it’s a disaster for the Republicans. Pat Toomey’s primary challenge to Specter was a gamble for Republicans. The best-case scenario would be to force Specter to move to the right without actually beating him. It actually seemed to pay off when Specter flip-flopped on EFCA, a crucial piece of legislation that’s worth risking a Senate seat over. But now it’s blown up in their faces completely. Specter says he’ll still oppose EFCA, but I have trouble seeing him really maintain that stance. He has to make it through a Democratic primary now. That’s very hard to do in Pennsylvania when the AFL-CIO is out for your blood.

Specter’s most likely play is to stay formally opposed to EFCA, but support a compromise along the lines of what some moderate Democrats might favor. He certainly can’t risk being the decisive anti-EFCA vote. Democrats in the Senate may be offering him institutional support in the primary, but primaries tend to be low-turnout operations, and Specter is going to have to work his way into the favor of the partisan Democratic base. Think of it this way: If you were a liberal (or pro-labor) Pennsylvania Democrat, would you vote for Specter? I wouldn’t. I’d be glad he left the GOP, but once he’s done that, he doesn’t have anything special to offer. He’d be a nearly unbeatable general election Senate candidate against Pat Toomey, but a standard issue Democrat could probably do well, too.

The broader symbolism here is that it’s another sign that Barack Obama’s first two years may not look like Bill Clinton’s. In 1993-94, Clinton’s approval ratings sagged, his party lost special elections everywhere, and conservative Democrats were switching to the GOP. Obama’s approval ratings are high and holding steady, Democrats remain far more popular than Republicans, Democrats held the first special election, and now they’ve picked up a party switch. It’s still early, but Obama is starting to build a self-sustaining psychology of success.

Epidemic? Yeah, Right...When Pigs Have Wings


The latest madness consuming the public attention is "swine flu." Scanning the press releases from the latest few days, I have tried to get an accurate picture of what is at stake.

Swine Flu appears to have originated in Mexico and, as of the late evening of Tuesday, April 28th, is responsible for almost 150 deaths and several hundreds more who are afflicted. Furthermore, U.S citizens, most notably a collection of students in New York (I am trying to ascertain whether these are "spring breakers")and some religious organizations that have done recent work in Mexico, are now afflicted. The World Health Organization now suspects that the disease has spread to six countries outside of Mexico and has responded by raising the alert level. The Center for Disease Control and the State Department have advised against non-essential travel to Mexico. A "ground-zero" has not been identified by any government or international authority, although I read today that residents of the Mexican town of La Gloria suspect its nearby pig farms.

My prayers go out to the victims of this mysterious virus. I wish a speedy recovery to those who are still suffering.

Furthermore, I apologize if this column in away offends readers or "smacks" of insensitivity to the victims of this disease. I am trying to make a sociological observation about the irrationality of fear, not a medical or community health observation. I know that my penchant for being a contrarian might sometimes get me in trouble. I'm sorry again.

Reading the press releases on Yahoo and the Associated Press, something jumped out at me. Why is everybody so afraid? Am I really being callous because I sit 2,000 miles away from Mexico and have a better chance of being killed by a poisonous insect than I do swine flu? I wonder if the readers can tell me why I am wrong. Take, for instance, this article:

US flu deaths seen as likely as outbreak spreads


"The number of confirmed cases in the United States was raised to 64, but states and cities were reporting more suspected cases. In New York, the city's health commissioner said "many hundreds" of schoolchildren were ill at a school where some students had confirmed cases.

Swine flu is believed to have killed more than 150 people in Mexico, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the U.S. has 68 confirmed cases in five states, with 45 in New York, one in Ohio, one in Indiana, two in Kansas, six in Texas and 13 in California."

Swine flu is already being described as an "outbreak" despite the seemingly low death toll. And sure enough, further down the article we finally get a much needed injection of perspective:


"Still, U.S. officials stressed there was no need for panic and noted that flu outbreaks are quite common every year. The CDC estimates that about 36,000 people in the United States died of flu-related causes each year, on average, in the 1990s."

So let me get this straight. 36,000 people die per annum from influenza, a disease which has worked its away into the everyday vernacular of every one I know since they were 6 years old, and the current panic du jour is a disease that has claimed less than 200 deaths on one continent?

I decided to check WebMD.com for some information on Swine Flu. In the words of John Mayer--albeit in a slightly different context--"Something's....missing...and I don't know what it is. No, I don't know what it is...at all!" I found some valuable information below:

"How is swine flu treated?

The new swine flu virus is sensitive to the antiviral drugs Tamiflu and Relenza. The CDC recommends those drugs to prevent or treat swine flu; the drugs are most effective when taken within 48 hours of the start of flu symptoms. But not everyone needs those drugs; many of the first people in the U.S. with lab-confirmed swine flu recovered without treatment. The Department of Homeland Security has released 25% of its stockpile of Tamiflu and Relenza to states. Health officials have asked people not to hoard Tamiflu or Relenza.

How can I prevent swine flu infection?

The CDC recommends taking these steps:

  • Wash your hands regularly with soap and water, especially after coughing or sneezing. Or use an alcohol-based hand cleaner.
  • Avoid close contact with sick people.
  • Avoid touching your mouth, nose, or eyes.

Can I still eat pork?

Yes. You can't get swine flu by eating pork, bacon, or other foods that come from pigs.


So Swine Flu is a disease that can be treated with two drugs that are already in existence and for which the government has ample stockpiles. We evidently can't contract Swine Flu from pork--so don't go converting to Islam just yet---and ways to protect ourselves from contracting Swine Flu are things we should be doing in the absence of any outbreak.

I wonder whether this is a rational response. Put in another way, I question whether the fear-stricken population is blowing this way out of proportion. History tells us that the masses are themselves vulnerable to panic. A few recent examples come to mind:

-Many critics of the Bush Administration, for instance, were appalled at the way those in power manipulated our collective dismay, sorrow, and confusion after the terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001 into a march to war. Note to readers: I supported both wars, but I empathize with my many intelligent left-leaning friends who felt they got hoodwinked by our leadership.

-Many, myself included, were appalled at the environmentalists who have used every natural disaster, including Hurricane Katrina, as evidence that urgent and draconian action is needed.

-Many of us were told that, in the middle of 2008, our economy was on the brink of collapse and that every last morsel of our prosperity was threatened. As a response, it was completely and utterly necessary that the government borrow trillions of dollars to bail out AIG and extend massive guarantees to prop up the world's riskiest, bulkiest, and most politically-connected financial firms.

It appears as though people are more easily consumed by fear they don't fully understand. We expect deaths from the common cold or influenza. As tragic as deaths are from car accidents, we understand that they do happen..and it is the price we pay for being able to drive. Ditto for airplane accidents and small-scale natural disasters.

But once something we don't fully understand threatens us, we start to panic. A shadowy group of Islamic fundamentalists that spends its waking hours plotting our deaths? We panic.

A virus makes the leap from animals to humans and has no cure or vaccine? Our fear boils over. S.A.R.S? Avian Flu? West Nile Virus? All of those occupied the public's attention for weeks on end.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe we tend to panic more when the threat is closer to home. Does anyone remember the Tsunami that killed 300,000 people in late 2004? Okay you remember that one. How about the cyclone that hit Myanmar last year that claimed 140,000 fatalities? Or the earthquake in China last year that killed 69,000? Or the earthquake in Iran in the city of Bam that killed over 25,000 and injured countless others? Shouldn't we spend our precious braincells worrying about the next disastrous tectonic shifting of the earth's plates?

Radly Balko, a columnist for Reason Magazine, reminds us here of a similar swine flu scare in the 1970s, in which the vaccine appear to be more deadly than the disease.

Yay!!! Salon Magazine agrees with me! Wait! Who the hell is Salon Magazine?

Dr. Henry Miller adds more here. He even references the "tipping point."


Thoughts please!

Tony Blair on Liberal Interventionism


I was at the speech in 1999 when Tony Blair spoke in Chicago and declared "We are all interventionists now." James Taranto looks back....

Yesterday Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, delivered an important speech in Chicago. As Oliver Kamm of London's Times notes, it was a follow-up to a speech 10 years ago, also in Chicago, in which Blair, as Kamm puts it, "rightly perceived that rogue states posed a threat to civilised values and regional stability" and, in Blair's own words, "set out what I described as a doctrine of international community that sought to justify intervention."

When Blair spoke in 1999, Saddam Hussein still held power in Iraq and Slobodan Milosevic ruled what was left of Yugoslavia. The end of Saddam's dictatorship was four years away, but NATO was already acting to liberate Kosovo from Milosevic's domination. The Kosovo operation proceeded fairly smoothly, but the liberation of Iraq turned out to be more complicated. That, combined with distaste or hatred for George W. Bush, caused many liberals to lose their nerve and abandon the idea of intervention on behalf of human rights.

Not Blair. He acknowledges a mistake, in that in 1999 "I thought that removal of a despotic regime was almost sufficient in itself to create the conditions for progress." Nonetheless, he says, "I still believe that those who oppress and brutalise their citizens are better put out of power than kept in."

This is a far less popular view on the American center-left than it was in 1999--or in 2002, when 162 congressional Democrats voted in favor of Iraq's liberation. Today many American liberals scoff at a concern for human rights and espouse instead a coldhearted "realism" that might once have passed for conservative.

Blair argues that such realism is not realistic at all:

We should not revert to the foreign policy of years gone by, of the world-weary, the supposedly sensible practitioners of caution and expediency, who think they see the world for what it is, without the illusions of the idealist who sees what it could be.
We should remember what such expediency led us to, what such caution produced. Here is where I remain adamantly in the same spot, metaphorically as well as actually, of 10 years ago, that evening in this city. The statesmanship that went before regarded politics as a Bismarck or Machiavelli regarded it. It's all a power play; a matter not of right or wrong, but of who's on our side, and our side defined by our interests, not our values. The notion of humanitarian intervention was the meddling of the unwise, untutored and inexperienced.
But was it practical to let Pakistan develop as it did in the last 30 years, without asking what effect the madrassas would have on a generation educated in them? Or wise to employ the Taliban to drive the Russians out of Afghanistan? Or to ask Saddam to halt Iran? Was it really experienced statesmanship that let thousands upon thousands die in Bosnia before we intervened or turned our face from the genocide of Rwanda?
Or to form alliances with any regime, however bad, because they solve "today" without asking whether they will imperil "tomorrow"? This isn't statesmanship. It is just politics practiced for the most comfort and the least disturbance in the present moment.

One need not agree with Blair on every point; for instance, we would argue that support for the anticommunist resistance in Afghanistan, which helped bring about the disintegration of the Soviet empire, was justified both morally and practically. (The failure lay in neglecting Afghanistan after the Soviet withdrawal.) His overall point, however, is true and important. Often so-called realists like Charles Freeman, John Mearsheimer, Stephen Walt and Roger Cohen display a perverse pride in their moral insensitivity, as if amorality itself were the same as clear thinking.

Does liberal interventionism have a future? That, it seems to us, is up to President Obama. Here are Blair's thoughts on the matter:

President Obama's reaching out to the Muslim world at the start of a new American administration is welcome, smart, and can play a big part in defeating the threat we face. It disarms those who want to say we made these enemies, that if we had been less confrontational they would have been different. It pulls potential moderates away from extremism.
But it will expose, too, the delusion of believing that there is any alternative to waging this struggle to its conclusion. The ideology we are fighting is not based on justice. That is a cause we can understand. And world-wide these groups are adept, certainly, at using causes that indeed are about justice, like Palestine. Their cause, at its core, however, is not about the pursuit of values that we can relate to; but in pursuit of values that directly contradict our way of life. They don't believe in democracy, equality or freedom. They will espouse, tactically, any of these values if necessary. But at heart what they want is a society and state run on their view of Islam. They are not pluralists. They are the antithesis of pluralism. And they don't think that only their own community or state should be like that. They think the world should be governed like that.
In other words, there may well be groups, or even Governments, that can be treated with, and with whom we can reach an accommodation. Negotiation and persuasion can work and should be our first resort. If they do, that's great, which is why if Hamas were to accept the principle of a peaceful two state solution, they could be part of the process agreeing it [sic]. But the ideology, as a movement within Islam, has to be defeated. It is incompatible not with "the West" but with any society of open and tolerant people and that in particular means the many open and tolerant Muslims.

Obama's bitterest opponents see him as actively hostile to American ideals and interests, à la former president Jimmy Carter. A more plausible worry is that the president is naive and egotistical enough to believe that his own luminous personality is sufficient to solve the world's problems.

But if Obama's glad-handing is a mere tactic--if it is, or comes to be, part of a strategy that incorporates Blair's insights about the importance of Western ideals and the evil of the enemy's ideology--he could prove to be a successful foreign-policy president.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Ryan Sager Nails It!


TEACHER-TENURE TRAP


"
It's true across many school districts in America, and it's an especially egregious problem in New York. The fact is, we simply reward time served, as opposed to performance -- whether it's seniority-based firing, whether it's the lack of merit pay or whether it's the essentially automatic granting of tenure at the end of three years.

American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten seems to think she deserves some kind of medal for even allowing a commission to study tenure to come into existence -- even though it was her goons who got the commission killed last year. And even though the whole idea of a commission itself was just a lame compromise when her union pushed a bill through Albany last year banning school districts from using student-testing data to determine whether teachers should be given lifetime job security.

But it really doesn't matter whether this commission comes into existence: It would be a creature of Albany, and the lawmakers there are Randi's puppets. Like the clowns on the City Council education committee, they read her cue cards"

Postive Trend


Support for Free Market Economy Up Seven Points Since December

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of U.S. voters say that they prefer a free market economy over a government-managed economy. That’s up seven points since December.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey also found that just 11% now prefer a government-run economy, down from 15% four months ago.

Free markets are preferred by 94% of Republicans, 64% of Democrats and 78% of those not affiliated with either major party. Adults under 30 favor free markets by a 79% to eight percent (8%) margin.

AND......

“Free markets are seen in a better light than capitalism because of the recent behavior by America’s largest corporations,” notes Scott Rasmussen, founder and publisher of Rasmussen Reports. “It’s hard for people to embrace a system that lets big business keep profits in good times and then asks for taxpayer bailouts when times are tough. If that’s the way capitalism is perceived, it should be no surprise that people prefer free markets.”

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Makes Me Feel Better, Everytime


Me: "I dont know, kiddo. I just haven't been feeling very chipper lately"

Cousin (in a sweet, high-pitched voice):
"Awwww its okay..

there there...

HHHHHUUUUUUGGGGGGG!!!!"

Holocaust Deniers and the Right to Our Own Mind

A Facebook friend of mine linked to this article on Friday.

Former KKK leader detained in Prague

PRAGUE (AP) — Former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke was detained by police in the Czech Republic on Friday on suspicion of denying the Holocaust.

Police spokesman Jan Mikulovsky said the action was taken because Duke does that in his book "My Awakening," which is punishable by up to three years in Czech prisons.

Duke traveled to the republic to promote the book's Czech translation of the book at the invitation of neo-Nazis.

Mikulovsky declined to give any further details, citing an ongoing investigation.

Prague's Charles University also banned a Duke lecture scheduled there Friday for students taking a course on extremism.

Duke, a resident of Louisiana and a former Republican state legislator there, also was to have given lectures over the weekend in Prague and the country's second-largest city, Brno.

The KKK is a white supremacist group in the U.S. famous for its oppression of blacks, Jews and other minorities.


I wonder of some readers of this blog and the article are upset by this. David Duke is being charged with suspicion of denying the Holocaust. Yes, David Duke is a descpicable human being. Yes, he has radical views on a whole host of issues. Yes, it strains credulity that Louisianans would even consider electing him. Oh wait, they elected Edwin Edwards, whose motto was “Vote for the Crook,” twice.

But is Mr. Duke’s offense criminal? And should it be? I am aware that he was arrested in the Czech Republic and not in the United States, and other countries, even ostensibly progressive ones, do not have our first amendment guarantees.


The existence of such laws in European countries is ironic as well. Many European countries, either out of fear of Nazi intimidation and agression, or in an effort to maintain neutrality, said NOTHING while the Third Reich was extinguishing the Jews. So, in some way, enacting these laws allows them to wash their hands of complicity and guilt, right? They can now pretend as though they are doing something.


But I still don’t understand what Mr. Duke’s crime is here. Suspicion of denying the Holocaust is stupid. But we are now wading into that slippery slope that is “policing thought crimes.” Doesn’t Mr. Duke have a right to his own opinions? Doesn’t he have a right to his own mind? Freedom of conscience is one of the western world's most sacred values.


For similar reasons I am against “hate crime legislation.” Asking judges and juries to start delving into the pyschoanaysis of killers and criminals is difficult enough. Why confound the issue by seeing whether the criminal was motivated by “hate” versus something else? Why is it a hate-crime when a white person kills a black person, but black-on-black crime is not a hate crime?


I started thinking about this issue when I read an essay several years ago by Christopher Hitchens, a British journalist and contributing editor to Vanity Fair magazine. The essay was entitled “The Strange Case of David Irving.” David Irving is a British historian who has been an active Holocaust denier and Nazi sympathizer. Mr. Irving, too, was arrested in Austria for denying the Holocaust and “glorifying and identifying with the German Nazi Party.”
Give Mr. Irving credit for at least to make an academic case for denying the Holocaust, even though such case maybe be specious or non-existent.


Furthermore, while the Holocaust was indeed a grave crime against humanity, it certainly may not have been the largest or gravest. Mao Tse-Tung’s “Great Leap Forward” and “Cultural Revolution” is said to have killed in between 20-30 million Chinese. Stalin’s forced famine in the 1920s killed over 10 million Russians. How about Pol Pot’s killing fields in Cambodia? 25% of of the population was killed. And these WERE government policies.


Denying any of these events is not a crime. So why is it crime to deny the Holocaust? Should governments pick and choose what historical events can and cannot be denied? Should governments be in the business of criminalizing unpopular or radical views? What if a historian uncovers evidence that some aspects of these dark chapters of our history are, in fact, untrue?


Thoughts, please!

Miss America and Celebrity Snobbery


A New Blacklist?

Entertainment blogger Perez Hilton wasn't subtle after Miss California Carrie Prejean said she favored limiting marriage to a man and woman in response to a judge's question about gay marriage at the Miss USA pageant. He called her "a bitch" and "the c word" on camera afterwards. She responded merely by saying she felt sorry for him.

In a calmer moment, Mr. Hilton insisted: "Miss USA should represent all Americans, and with her statement she instantly was divisive and alienated millions of gays and lesbians, their families, friends and supporters." Hmmm. It was only five months ago that a majority of California voters voted to limit marriage in just the way Ms. Prejean suggested -- to a man and woman. A national survey by ABC News finds that voters still opposed the concept of gay marriage by 58% to 36%. Sounds to me like Mr. Hilton wants Miss USA pageant winners to only represent his viewpoint. Indeed, Mr. Perez told ABC News that her answer on gay marriage sealed Ms. Prejean's loss of the title: "She lost it because of that question. She was definitely the front-runner before that." Ms. Prejean eventually finished second.

Hollywood has spent more than half a century railing against the anti-Communist blacklists of the 1950s that prevented some people from working in the movie industry. Woody Allen, George Clooney and other celebrities have produced liberal-minded films purporting to show how evil the blacklist was and upbraiding those who were silent while it was imposed.

Well, a new blacklist is being created right now, though few celebrities have dared to deplore it. Last December, Scott Eckern, artistic director of the California Musical Theater in Sacramento, the state's largest nonprofit performing arts company, donated $1,000 to the "Yes on 8" campaign against gay marriage. Protests from the producer of the Broadway musical "Hairspray" and many other show business people soon forced him to resign.

Similarly, Los Angeles Film Festival Director Richard Raddon was forced to step down after it was revealed he had donated $1,500 to "Yes on 8." The festival's organizer put out a statement blandly saying: "Our organization does not police the personal, religious or political choices of any employee, member or filmmaker." Behind the scenes, however, many of the festival's board members pressured Mr. Raddon to resign. "From now on, no one in entertainment is going to feel safe making a donation as measly as $100 to a conservative defense-of-marriage campaign," says Brent Bozell, head of the conservative Media Research Center.

Nor if Ms. Prejean's experience is any guide will many people be willing to exercise their free speech rights if they oppose gay marriage.

-- John Fund

Friday, April 24, 2009

A Few Thoughts on Education

Reading some of the articles that linked on my Facebook page, I stumbled across a few relating to the decrepit state of our public school system in the United States. You'd be very hard-pressed to find anyone in this country who thinks our public schools are serving our children well. Education budgets at the federal and state level have exploded in the last few decades, including a near quintupling of the Department of Education's budget since the department's inception, with no discernible improvement in student achievement. By international standards, our system is the laughing stock of the industrialized world despite being at or near the top of funding per pupil.

I came across a really interesting article that I had posted back in November. The subject of the Time Magazine article is Michelle Rhee, the knee-capping, blackberry-toting Chancellor of the Public School System in the District of Columbia. Mrs. Rhee is a registered Democrat but has become something of a cult hero to advocates of school reform across the country. She 'cut her teeth' (I think this is an expression meaning "gained valuable experience" or "honed her skills") in New York City, where she helped found the New Teacher Project and worked closely with New York City's Education Chancellor Joel Klein (a side note: Mr. Klein worked in the Clinton Justice Department but remains an independent. He is considering a run for mayor of New York City).

Mrs. Rhee and the aforementioned Time Magazine article remain important because of a very overlooked issue in today's political debate: the future of the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship Program, otherwise known as the "school voucher" program in D.C--and, more generally, the future of school voucher programs across the country. School vouchers are not popular with teachers' unions, e.g. the National Education Association and their state affiliates (Randi Weingarten's United Federation of Teachers in New York is the worst of these). I should also note that the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship program became a brief issue during one of the 2008 presidential debates between then-Senators McCain and Obama. Teachers' unions see vouchers, in theory, as an unnecessary diversion of resources away from the public school system. In practice, they hit union members in their wallets...and that's a big "no-no."

Mrs. Rhee is the bette noire of the unions. She has been inflicting blunt force trauma on the union agenda for a few years now, and the teachers unions, having spent ten millions of dollars getting Democrats elected nationwide, want their quid pro quo. Critics of Mrs. Rhee argue that she rules with an iron fist. She has sacked the entire public school administration and fired dozens of teachers in D.C., including some who many suggest performed competently. However, in my humble opinion, teachers and principals aren't fired enough. Being a public school teacher is one of the most secure jobs in the world. Education bureaucracies are obstacles to reform, not enablers of it---so if Mrs. Rhee's worst offense is offending the sensitivities of the education establishment? My response is a resounding "bravo."

With the Democrats in control of the White House and the Legislative Branch (God, please save us), the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship Program is in serious jeopardy. They WILL phase out the voucher program if they get their way. Politicians have mastered the art of misdirection: counting on the populace to be so outraged at other aspects of their governance that they will not be bothered with a seemingly trivial issue such as school vouchers. The Democrats have already tried to use procedural tactics in the Senate several times to phase out the program.


The good news is that Michelle Rhee has the respect of President Obama and Education Secretary and fellow Chicagoan Arne Duncan. Mr. Duncan recently editorialized in the Wall Street Journal that the Obama administration is open to every kind of reform, although sadly he did not mention vouchers or the D.C. program specifically.

The concept of "reform" is rather nebulous. Sol Stern, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, describes "reform" as not just vouchers, "but also charter schools, tuition tax credits, mayoral control, and other reforms are now on the table as alternatives to bureaucratic, special-interest-choked big-city school systems." Some other reforms would include federal mandates for test scores and achievement, merit pay for teachers, and tutoring programs outside school hours. Note: for the purpose of this post I am going to ignore home schooling, school prayer, and also early education programs.

Whether there is a "left/right" split on who support reforms and who doesn't is a matter of some debate. A few personal observations:

-Democrats often get intellectually lazy and accuse Republicans for being "against education." Republicans have argued for the abolition of the Department of Education on ideological grounds (call it the limited government argument). Also, conservative scholars, Charles Murray comes to mind, have argued against in the insertion of the federal government into what primarily ought to be a state or local matter.
-Vouchers, introduced by Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman, are seen as "market-oriented" solutions and mostly supported by the right-wing of the political spectrum.
-Teachers' unions mostly support Democrats, although they will make political alliances with any willing counterparty.
-Conservatives have argued that public school education amounts to the imposition or the professing of progressive values---and children are not learning to think critically and analytically. Thomas Sowell articulately describes this phenomenon in his book Inside American Education; The Decline, The Deception, the Dogmas.

However, despite the inclinations of the Democratic Party, I have many liberal friends in Chicago are are open to many of the reforms/ideas mentioned in the paragraphs above, so I can't comfortably say that liberals think this and conservatives think that.


Sol Stern, writes here that school choice may not be enough, and that we need deeper reform at the pedagogical and curriculum level.

Thoughts, please!!!!

Best Speech From Any Movie, EVER!!!

The Soloist


I saw the trailer for this movie several months ago and it looks awesome! Can't wait!

The WSJ reviews it favorably!

'Soloist': Beautifully Played, Bittersweet Notes



"Films have romanticized mental illness, as in "Shine," or surrealized it, as in "A Beautiful Mind," but this one plays essentially fair with it. Music is Nathaniel's only refuge from the terrors and confusions of a merciless brain disease that ravaged his talent, destroyed his shining future as a classical cellist and defies anything resembling a cure. The movie is no less successful in its portrait of a journalist working at his craft. Other films, most recently "State of Play," reach for the fraught drama of contemporary journalism, but this one nails a host of authentic details -- Steve Lopez's paper has already begun the slide that imperils its future -- along with a special spirit. Far from being a bleeding heart, Lopez starts his journey of discovery as a self-ironic reporter on the trail of a good story."

Thursday, April 23, 2009

What Would We Do Without the Associated Press?

Headline of the Day

I feel really bad for the journalism graduate who got hired as the AP beatwriter for scoping out the nation's bridges. You know...until he gets that promotion covering corn farms in Iowa.

Man pretending to fall off bridge actually falls


BLOOMINGTON, Minn. – Police said a 23-year-old man is in stable condition after he pretended that he was falling off a bridge over the Minnesota River, then actually fell off the bridge. Police got a call just before 5 a.m. Sunday from a 21-year-old man who said his friend fell off the Highway 77 bridge and into a marshy area about 30 feet below.

The caller said he was driving north when his friend, who he said had been drinking, told him to pull into the bridge's emergency lane so he could urinate.

The 23-year-old stood eventually climbed to the ledge of the bridge, then looked at his friend and pretended to fall. "He then in fact fell," reads a press release from the Bloomingtin Police Department.

Police from Bloomington and Eagan responded, and the Eagan Fire Department used a chair lift to retrieve the man. He was transported to Hennepin County Medical Center where was treated.


Wednesday, April 22, 2009

John Maynard Keynes vs. Friedrich Von Hayek



The smart money is on Hayek. Hat tip to MarginalRevolution.com.



http://www.auburn.edu/~garriro/macro.htm





Coming up next, the "economics" of coffee breaks. Are coffee breaks really "stealing time and productivity" from your employer?

Relationships, Dating, The "Butterfly Effect," and the "Tipping Point"

Okay, on Saturday I was up at 3 Am, still adjusting to the U.S. Central Time Zone. Perusing the internets (plural), my fingers happen to wander into the Yahoo! dating advice section. Sensing an opportunity to pick up a few useful pointers, I scanned the list of headlines. I'll put some of the good ones below and excerpt some of my favorite parts of each

Dating 101: How to Tell if a Guy Is Cheating

#2 is "He steps up the grooming"

Will He Ever Marry You?

You? The psychotic high-maintenance one? The odds are against you...but anyways..a few quotes

"Another major telltale sign of real love is selflessness and the ability to care. Does your man make sacrifices for you? Is he able to put your wants and needs before his? Relationships are all about give and take, but love is more about giving."

Hmmmm. That's not bad. and..

"Having unrealistic expectations makes it impossible for a man to develop a close bond. If a guy who isn’t ready starts getting too close to a woman, he’ll look for imperfections,either consciously or subconsciously, to create distance between them and, ultimately, to give him a reason to break up with her."

Not bad either. If guys start highligting the 4% of you that IS flawed and ignoring the 96% that is great--or merely tolerable---then you better pack your bags, sweetheart.

What Makes Men Fall in Love

-Ask his opinion
Because you have been 0 for 30 in your last 30 opinions
-Don his clothes
Kinda creepy, but if we like you, it's hot. Wear the dress shirts! I'll leave a few out for you the night before, k?
-Blow him off
Spot on! turn us down...we'll come after you. We want what we can't have. That includes your hot friends too.
-Let him see you primp
No! No! absolutely not! we don't want to see you agonize over what you are wearing that evening. Your indecision kills us. You are just trying all that shit on so other GIRLS notice, not other guys, or me. If I like you, you could wear a tall, white, kitchen garbage bag and I would think you look great.

4 Ways to Sweep Him Off His Feet

All four of these are horrible. This isn't bad tho
1. Suggest a Sexcapade

These are primarily aimed at women. Noticing that Yahoo! Dating collaborates with Cosmo magazine confirms this. I'm sure if i fished around, I could find the Yahoo! Dating and Men's Health oracle of dating wisdom.

It's really hard to imagine that any two people dated successfully before the advent of the "Dating Advice" industry. I mean, how did people ever fall in love before women started asking men before their opinions? Some of this crap lies in the very parochial self-interest of Cosmo magazine. Telling their readers "they suck!!!" and then advising them how to be successful daters helps them sell magazines. It's like the diamond, flower, and Hallmark card industries forming a cartel and coming up with Valentine's Day.

I began to think about my own experiences in the last few years (I have to keep the sample size fairly small and my memory is not THAT good). All of these pieces of advice are about things that we CAN control. We CAN control our grooming. We CAN proactively "play" hard to get. We CAN suggest a sexcapade (yes, to the Altoid and ice-cube suggestion).

But I believe the difference between a successful and unsuccessful relationship depends largely on VERY small factors and that are beyond our control. Consider Malcolm Gladwell's bestseller "The Tipping Point; How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference." I first became familiar with Mr. Gladwell's writings as an avid reader of the New Yorker several years ago. The general premise of book is too complex to summarize in a sentence or two. But the general premise is that there exists a theoretical "tipping point" beyond which the trend or momentum is very difficult to reverse. This could apply to the spread of ideas, a fad, or an epidemic, and he even contextualizes the word "stickiness" to mean the lasting effects of any phenomenon.

The other concept I thought of was the "butterfly effect"--the phenomenon by which a butterfly flaps its wings somewhere in North America and creates a typhoon in China. The "butterfly effect" is a subset of bigger field of mathematics called "chaos theory"---one of the most abstruse fields of mathematics--or is it economics--or physics---ever conceived by humankind. Similar to the subtitle of Gladwell's book, it refers to the idea that extremely small inputs lead to gargantuan outputs.

Now on to my theory. I believe that relationships do have a tipping point. There exists a point where a relationship goes from the casual dating stage to the point where it really has legs and picks up steam, like an epidemic of disease. You'll have to excuse the simile comparing one's feelings to a disease, but if you can envision yourself being "consumed" by love or feelings, this makes a little sense.

What could the tipping point be? Maybe for some, it's the first time a relationship gets physical. For some, it's anywhere between dates #'s 3 to #6. Maybe it's the first shared traumatic experience. Or the first shared vacation. For me its actually been a first kiss! No joke.

This is not to say--at all--that beyond this point all relationships are fail-safe. Like trends or epidemics, that can--and mostly do--die. But there is that theoretical point before which it is easy to walk away with no hard feelings, and beyond which stopping the momentum may prove to be elusive.

The "butterfly effect" corollary to my theory is the relationship's randomness component. Consider the following scenarios:

1) A couple is on their second date, dining at a Lebanese restaurant in Chicago named Maza. After a little bit of small talk, the subject of conversation turns to each other's parents. In the flow of the conversation the guy decrees, "oh, well, maybe someday you'd like to meet them!"



2) Two people, again in the early stages of dating, have gone a few days without corresponding. One of them...oh whatever...let's say the guy texts the girl, "hey there! whatcha up to today?" And after a few hours of no response, the guy texts again, "hey, I haven't heard back from you. Is everything ok?"

3) After what he thinks is a very successful first date, the guy, still basking in the first-date glow, decides to ignore the 3-day rule and call the next day to say "hi."

4) When it gets to the point in the dating relationship where the sexual tension boils over, either the guy or the girl chooses to wait---just to make sure that they are doing the right thing-- rather than give in to primitive temptations. Note: for most people I know, this is anywhere between date #2 and date #45


Have any of the readers been in situations like this before? Maybe the resolutions of these clear scenarios is clear to you. But it's not clear to me.

Take scenario #1. A casual reference to meeting someone's parents, especially in some abstract point in the future, seems like a benign observation. But a girl can react in one of two ways, and you really don't know which way she will react. She might think, "Whoa buddy! No need to bring up the parents. Let's juts try and get through dessert." Or she might think, "Wow! He actually is forward-looking! This isn't temporary for him. He is serious!"

Take scenario #2. Texting someone twice within a few hours can either seam REALLY REALLY thoughtful....or REALLY REALLY clingy and insecure. Am I right? The recipient can think, "jesus, will you leave me alone?" or "Gee, he/she really does care if I am okay! Let me get back to him/her."


The same logic can apply to scenario #3. A phone call on the day following a successful date can be kind and thoughtful, and many girls would accept it as such. But to some, not waiting the requisite 3 days mean you are dripping with desperation and eagerness. You can't wait an extra few days? What, is your life that lame? Are you that lonely?

Lastly, we ALL know how scenario #4 can break both ways. If we wait? We are shy and unsure. Or we could be considerate and patient. If we don't wait? We are CRAZY 'bout you! Or we are succumbing to carnal temptation and we can't wait to be done with you the next morning. Actually, here is some cab money. Go find your way home.

My point is simply this. Misplaying these scenarios can have MAJOR consequences on the outcome of a relationship. Wait...forget the relationship. You get one of these wrong? You may not get a next date! Or a call back!

Even the most astute judges of character cannot tell within a few dates whether the girl is the type who likes to be contacted often or who needs their space. Getting this detail right, however, will heavily influence how much she likes you. If you think you are being kind and she thinks it's too soon for you to call? It may take hypnosis to convince her you aren't desperate. If a guy has it in his head that a girl is clingy and high-maintenance...and he isn't on board? It's over, psycho! The next text message you are getting is at one in the morning after an 8-12 "top-shelf" all-you-can-drink party. If a girl gets the impression that a guy is interested only in sex, i.e. he's too eager to disrobe while the two of you are watching Love, Actually on the couch? It's over for you, Romeo. I hope your "Ho"-lodex is current.

I am anticipating a lot of feedback on this one. Have at it. Gotta go get a caffeine drink.

Drink of the Week


Price-----Seasonal, Market Price

Please End the Drug War!!!!


I have been reading too many headlines recently about escalating violence in Mexico, death squads in Thailand, and human rights abuses in South America---all because of this very feckless aspect of our foreign policy.


Wider Drug War Threatens Colombian Indians



"It is the kind of nightmarish ordeal that is an all-too-common feature of Colombia’s long war: peasants being terrorized by gunmen seeking dominance in the backlands.

But as Colombia’s war for control of the drug trade intensifies in frontiers like this one, with new combatants vying for smuggling routes and coca-growing areas where Indians eke out a meager existence, it is adding to the already grave toll on the nation’s indigenous groups. At least 27 of the groups are at risk of being eliminated because of the country’s four-decade conflict, according to the United Nations, and human rights organizations worry that the new violence is pushing even deeper into the Indians’ ancient lands."



Important Article in Yesterday's NYTimes

readers of this blog will figure out that I am no fan of the "Green Movement." Its not that I don't care about the environment or conservation--that is VERY important to me. Its that the Green Movement hasn't gotten ANYTHING RIGHT in the last 50 years! Nothing!

From John Tierney,

Use Energy, Get Rich and Save the Planet



"Those projections make it easy to assume that affluence and technology inflict more harm on the environment. But while pollution can increase when a country starts industrializing, as people get wealthier they can afford cleaner water and air. They start using sources of energy that are less carbon-intensive — and not just because they’re worried about global warming. The process of “decarbonization” started long before Al Gore was born."

Monday, April 20, 2009

Economics of Art Sales


From the book Discover Your Inner Economist by Tyler Cowen. I will quote below what he calls the "market regularities" of the value of art that is transacted (bought and sold).

"For better or for worse, most people prefer art that makes them happy, or that they think will make them happy. Look at the market prices. Paintings with light colors sell better than paintings with dark colors. Happy portrait subjects sell better than widows. Horizontal pictures are easier to hang over fireplaces and sofas."

Also,
1. Landscapes can as much as triple in value when there are horses or figures in the foreground. Evidence of industry usually lowers a picture's value.
2. A still life with flowers is worth more than one with fruit. Roses stand at the top of the flower hierarchy. Chrysanthemums and lupines (seen as working class) stand at the bottom.
3) There is a price hierarchy for animals. Purebred dogs help a picture more than mongrels do. Spaniels are worth more than collies. Racehorses are worth more than cart-horses. When it comes to game birds, the following rule of thumb holds: the more expensive it is to shoot the bird, the more it adds to the value of a painting. A grouse is worth more than a mallard, and the painter should show the animal from the front, not the back.
4) Water adds value to a picture, but only if it is calm. Shipwrecks are a no-no.
5)Round and oval works are extremely unpopular with buyers.
6. An eighteenth-century Francois Boucher nude sketch of a woman can be worth more than ten times more than a comparable sketch of a man.


Fascinating stuff, huh?



I will be quoting this book a lot in the next week or so. Simply fascinating. Ill do a full review when I am finished.

Why Obama Won

In a post below, I gave a very rudimentary analysis of why President Obama won. Professor Larry Sabato gives his take. I would trust him, if I were you..

"There were three giant demographic shifts that powered [Barack Obama's election]: The young broke more than 2-1 Democratic, and it was an intense preference unlikely to fade quickly. As this group ages and replaces older voters, Democrats will benefit even more since this group's turnout will go up. The proportion of minority voters (black, Hispanic, and Asian) shot up and is likely to climb consistently every four years (mainly because of Hispanics). Democrats get about three-quarters of the votes of minorities, taken as a collective group. Americans with post-graduate educations have begun to move firmly to the Democrats, not just because of Bush and the economy but also because of the GOP's conservative stance on social issues (abortion, gay rights, etc.) Republicans will be in the wilderness for a while, whatever they do. . . . There are many ways to increase their attractiveness, but one essential ingredient is to de-emphasize social issues -- as unhappy as that may make some fundamentalist Christians" -- Larry J. Sabato, professor at the University of Virginia, in his new book "The Year of Obama: How Barack Obama Won the White House."

Bravo to the West, Again!!!

Iran's President Slams Israel, Prompts Walkouts


"The meeting between the president of a democratic country with an infamous Holocaust-denier such as the president of Iran, who calls for Israel's destruction, does not mesh with the values that Switzerland represents and that are supposed to be represented at the U.N. conference on racism," the Israeli Foreign Ministry said in a statement.



Coming soon....the economics of art sales and a personal touch: relationships/dating and the "Butterfly Effect"

Victory for Free Speech

granted, its not in this country. But still. From today's NYTimes:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/21/business/global/21blogger.html?ref=world


“South Korea may be the only country in the world where a man is tried because he criticized the government’s foreign currency policies,” Mr. Park said in a statement before the judge on April 14.

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Professor Cowen Weighs in on the Opera

I go the Metropolitan Opera House roughly once a year. My father and step-mother are avid opera goers. The last opera I went to, Tristan Und Isolde by Wagner, was VERY mediocre. Yet the crowd went nuts as if the Cubs won the World Series. What gives?

Tyler Cowen

From Freakonomics blog:

Terry Teachout, meditating on a rare outburst of booing at the Metropolitan Opera in New York, wonders if classical music and theater are being diminished by a superabundance of standing ovations and a scarcity of negative feedback. What if theater and orchestra audiences behaved more like blog commenters?

What are the options? You might argue that older people are less grumpy but I'm not sure that approach will succeed.

"Signaling refined taste" comes to mind but that, taken alone, requires some negative feedback as well. Try listening to what informed viewers say to each other in art galleries. There is plenty of negative mixed in with the positive, even if you think the blend is a phony one.

I believe that the opera-going demographic wishes to signal "magnanimity." When these high-status people are slighted, as they might be by a bad performance, their privately optimal response is to ignore the slight. Reacting to the slight suggests that they have let it bother them; it is a sign of low status to be bothered by what are ultimately low status entities.

Magnanimity is an underrated concept in signaling theory, in part because it has such quiet manifestations. It is Holmes's "dog that didn't bark."

That so many people signal magnanimity in the very public opera house, but less so in the private art gallery, is a telling indication of how you should interpret much of the positive public feedback you receive.

How many of you are into signaling magnanimity?