'Worst Case' Scenario for Flu Estimated

"There will be about 1,700 U.S. cases of the new H1N1 flu, aka "swine flu," in the next four weeks under a worst-case scenario, according to a research team's new simulations.

It is not clear, however, how virulent or deadly this flu strain will become. Flu viruses are unpredictable, and while some in history have proven incredibly deadly, many would-be-pandemics turned out to be quite mild. Also, medicine and public health are more sophisticated today, in terms of treatments and educational campaigns, than they were during the nation's last pandemic flu in 1968, let alone during the Spanish flu of 1918.

Brockmann says his forecast is off by a little bit, and that's a good thing. His worst-case scenario assumes that no measures have been taken by officials and public health agencies to combat the spread of disease. Most likely, the case count will be lower than his estimate as a result of such things as stronger public health campaigns for hand washing and social distancing (stand far away from people who are coughing and sneezing), school closures where children are found to be symptomatic and the federal travel advisory against non-essential trips to Mexico."

So...1700 cases (I know, it's a projection based on computer models) is the forecaster's worst-case scenario? Seriously? This is what is preoccupying the news cycle?

Not to mention the enormous economic cost of shutting down schools, mass transit, shopping malls, and other commercial centers. This is insanity.